Assumptions:
- The cost of the intervention is $1000.
- Around 1200 community members are set to benefit from the road construction.
- Economic benefits include less vehicle maintenance due to improved road conditions and the enhanced ability to respond to emergencies.
- A 20% chance exists that the road construction would have commenced without the intervention.
Benefits:
- Reduced vehicle maintenance costs, conservatively estimated at $3,000 per year for the community.
- Increased accessibility and improved emergency response, estimated at $6,000 per year for the community.
Total Economic Benefits (without Counterfactual):
- Savings from reduced wear and tear on vehicles: $3,000/year.
- Savings from better accessibility and emergency response: $6,000/year.
- Total: $9,000/year.
Benefit/Cost Ratio (without Counterfactual):
- Benefit/Cost Ratio: $9,000 / $1,000 = 9.
Adjusted Analysis for 20% Counterfactual Probability:
- Adjusted benefits to account for 20% counterfactual: 80% of $9,000 = $7,200.
Adjusted Benefit/Cost Ratio:
- Adjusted Benefit/Cost Ratio: $7,200 / $1,000 = 7.2.
Counterfactual:
Considering the counterfactual, there was a chance that the community might have eventually received the new road without the intervention.
Conclusion:
Adjusting for the possibility that the road may have been built anyway, the intervention still results in a substantial adjusted benefit-to-cost ratio of 7.2. This reaffirms the intervention's significance, where each dollar invested is expected to yield $7.20 in benefits, primarily from vehicle maintenance savings and the intangible advantages of improved emergency services. The adjustment accounts for the realistic possibility that the construction could have occurred independently, thereby offering a more nuanced perspective on the intervention's impact. Nonetheless, the initiative's role in accelerating the infrastructure development is invaluable, especially when considering the extended lack of proper road access the community endured. The new road is anticipated to enhance the villagers' daily lives and economic opportunities significantly.